Contrarian Opinion about the Election Disaster

Politics:  remember South Carolina?

Seeds of the fiasco were planted in the 2020 Democratic primaries.  We had some strong candidates: Sanders, Warren, Booker, Klobacher, Buttiegieg.  They all quickly folded after Biden won the black vote in the South Carolina primary.  Once Biden claimed the support of the African American community, he was for some reason the undisputed nominee.

As payback, Biden promised South Carolina Congressman James Clyburn that he would pick a black woman as his running mate.  That led Biden to Harris, even though she fared poorly as a primary candidate and had even offended Biden during the debates.   Biden’s selection of Harris was the big mistake that ultimately backfired.  Various Republicans attacked Harris as a “DEI hire.”   I think such political discourse is abhorrent – but they are basically right in their own evil way.

Are we that corrupt?

A major explanation for Trump is that Americans think the system is “broken”, and they vote for Trump to demolish it a bit more.  Voters cheer a demagogue who promises to go after the deep state federal bureaucracy.

But why do most people think the system is broken?  Trump channels hostility and cynicism, but he has no theory of what’s wrong, other than that he is not in charge.  He capitalizes on red meat issues: they/them, drill baby drill, mass deportation, taxing China. But how do these crazy policies fix the broken system?  In 2016 he ran on “drain the swamp.”  That seems to have dropped out of the rotation. 

What if Democrats actually got into the issue of what broke the system? What if Democrats had a plan for fixing it?  Well they actually do, but it’s been silenced. The Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren wing of the party offers a cogent explanation of what broke the system: money in politics.  The government is deeply corrupt and primarily serves the interests of the rich and powerful.   There’s a well-thought-out platform for campaign finance reform, restrictions on lobbying, and ethical guidlines for legislators and officials.  But it’s been suppressed – supposedly too left wing for the ineptly centrist Dem mainstream.

Sadly, Harris’s corrupt world view prevented her from using some policy-specific rhetorical ammo that could be provided by the Biden track record.  The administration got some very good stuff done, and in my view one of their biggest achievements lay in  taking on the diminishing amount of competition in American business.  The Biden Justice Department and Lina Kahn’s FTC brought in a tough new approach to antitrust enforcement. 

Harris never mentioned “fixing the mess in Washington.”  Instead, she bathed in corruption, raking in money from rich donors and PACs, and having her campaign platform vetted by cronies from Wall Street and Silicon Valley.  She was carrying on in the best traditions of Biden and Obama.  Biden was of course a creature of the Senate, and I certainly never heard him talk about the ills of lobbying or campaign finance.  Obama’s Wall Street connections led him to forgive Wall Street for the financial crisis and to provide only minimal aid to homeowners.  His Silicon Valley connections coaxed him into being a major promoter and supporter of the growth of the big tech monopolies.

The Policy

Monopoly and oligopoly have contributed to economic inequality and have reduced economic dynamism.  And significantly reduced competition of course leads to increased prices – something that you might have thought would be of interest to the Harris, given that inflation is what is generally credited with sinking her campaign. There was no getting around the fact that food prices are about 26% higher than they were in early 2020.  So why didn’t Harris hammer home that the administration was leading the national effort to block the merger of Kroger and Albertsons, which would give the top three food retailers a 70 percent share of the market?  Was her policy team unaware of the low level of competition that exists in the meatpacking industry – always a good target for populist anger (the top four meat processors control a 50% market share)?  Had they not read the report of the record high profits earned by the biggest manufacturers of processed foods (in most sectors of the consumer packaged goods industry, the top three companies have 70 percent of more of the market)?

The best Harris could do was promise a crackdown on “price gouging.”  Here was an opportunity for Harris to set herself apart from Biden, and she utterly flopped.

The schtick

Trump didn’t win because of bacon prices, or immigration, or transgender swimmers.   He won because he is a charismatic figure who has built a semi religious cult of personality. I don’t know why people forgive him for his crimes, his crudenss, his simpleminded and inelegant political rhetoric, and his complete and utter negation of so many of the values, ideals and principles that we were taught to hold dear. Is it because they find him entertaining?  Or is it just a terminal, society-wide case of the fuck-its?

I thought his schtick was getting old.  But obviously Trump can still command high ratings.  Vance or someone else may inherit the MAGA movement, but the charisma can’t be passed down.   Let’s hope that in the next Presidential election, the Democrats can come up with someone who doesn’t seem like a talking robot hastily manufactured in a 3D printer and powered by a weak sound chip that can repeat a maximum of three talking points.

Pennsylvania

I really don’t want to beat up on Harris too much.  She stepped up when she had to, and she did the best she could.  I never really liked her – she has a nasally vocal intonation that bugs the hell out of me in an insurmountable way.  But when she got the nomination, what choice did we have other than to love her?   I rooted for her all the way, admired her debate win, and was heartened by the solid execution of the campaign.

I spent more than a week in Altoona, PA knocking on doors in the last days before Nov. 5.  It was all get out-the-vote by then, and I was only speaking to Democrats. But I was sure that Harris would win.  I saw a lot of enthusiasm for her, a lot of intention to vote on election day, a lot of friendly greetings, and not much in the way of ugly encounters with MAGA folks.

I told myself and my friends back home: never underestimate the basic goodness of the American people.  My faith in that remains strong.  Let’s not blow this again in 2026.